Target met

Today $SPX met and exceed some our target range of 1,660 on FED comments.

Tomorrow a couple of big banks report quarterly earnings - it will be an important day.

At this point, we have to wait and see what happens tomorrow!

Short term trend is up

The uptrend continued today as expected, en route to reach 1,660's on the $SPX.

Mid-term predictions as detailed in yesterday's blog.

1,660's target

We have decided that we will report out thoughts on market action distinctly for short term (we study the daily charts and look for confirmation on the hourly charts) and medium term time frames (we look at weekly and monthly charts - see June 28 report on the status of these). Hence, starting today, we will express these thoughts separately.

Medium Term: Until proven otherwise, we advocate that the market experienced a significant top on May 22 at 1,687 on the $SPX. We believe that the market is unfolding downwards since then, exerting several upwards retracements and concurrently displaying increased volatility (compared to the period from April 19 - to - May 22). Therefore, waves up for us are corrective retracements, until proven otherwise.

Short Term: We are in an uptrend since 1,560 of June 24, 2013. We interpret market action as a wave "a" up (1,560-1,626), wave "b" (1,626-1,604) down, and now wave "c" (started on July 3). Wave "a" was 60 or so points on the $SPX and consequently we anticipate a 60 point move upwards from 1,604, which we anticipate to bring the market  to our target of 1,660's. However, this wave can fail at any time now.

Depending on each person's personality, some follow short term and others follow medium trend signals.

DISCLAIMER This blog shall not be perceived as investment advice. This is a personal diary of our thoughts on the markets. Consult a professional broker or adviser before investing.  Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog are shared as personal thoughts and provided as general commentary only

Short term uptrend

Today all our indicators turned positive.

$SPX closed above its 50 DMA. $RUT is the most bullish average.

We are in a wave up, targeting 1,660 or so.

Waiting for a catalyst

The trend is down, despite the fact that we have experienced a upwards retracement and are having difficulty dropping impulsively lower. During the last 3 days, we have observed lower highs and lower lows.

Also, our moving averages indicator EMA(13), EMA(21) and EMA(34) are in a negative configuration, with the price below EMA(21) and EMA(34).

What we need to experience is a catalyst to produce an impulsive wave down, which will generate confirmation on the daily charts. The hourly charts remain in negative configuration.

Reversal day?

We continue to have confirmation on the hourly charts ($SPX & $DJIA) of the beginning of a new wave down.

Today, we also received confirmation of a down trend on our favorite SPY:VXX ratio.
Also, bonds stopped falling and new money is coming into them - perhaps a bearish sign. Interestingly, DJIA is more bearish that $SPX and $RUT.

However, we do NOT have confirmation of a down trend on the daily charts.

All and all, our uptrend that started on June 24 likely ended yesterday and we are awaiting for confirmation of a new down wave.

Target for this new down trend when it materializes is 1,530 or a bit lower.

Waiting for the uptrend to end

There is not much new to add to our analysis for last Friday.

We advocate that we are approaching the end of this upwards retracement and we anticipate that we will soon resume downwards action.

On the hourly, $SPX moved from last Friday's negative closing to positive momentum and then closed negative again. $SPX on the daily has not given us confirmation of a downwards wave yet. $DJIA is again less bullish that $SPX (like last Friday).

Until we get a significant drop that will generate confirmation of a new short term down trend, we can only point out that our indicators suggest that the current uptrend is coming to an end.