Multi year uptrend target range is projected at 1,600-1,620

The current bull market began on March 9, 2009 from a low of 667 on $SPX. The first wave up ended at 956 on June 8, 2009 (289 points). Based on this first leg up, our model projects 1,602 – 1,604 as the multi year uptrend high on $SPX.

The current uptrend that began on December 31, 2012 at 1,398.11 is projected to end 1,618 – 1,624.

The leg of the uptrend that began on February 26, 2013 at 1,485 is projected to end at 1,617.

The last leg of the uptrend that began on March 19, 2013 at 1,538.57 is projected to end at 1,616.

In conclusion, our analysis suggests the convergence of many different waves, starting as early as March 9, 2009 and as late as March 19, 2013, at the range of 1,600 – 1,620.

The length,in terms of time, of this bull run that started in March 2009 is now just over 4 years. The average length of bull markets over the last century is 3.8 years (median = 3.6 years). Therefore, we may be dealing with a "mature bull that may be getting tired of running".


A close below 1,537 invalidates the above mentioned target.

DISCLAIMER: This blog shall not be perceived as investment advice. This is a personal diary of our thoughts on the markets. Consult a professional broker or adviser before investing.  Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog are shared as personal thoughts and provided as general commentary only.

Trend is up

Today's breakout suggests that our previous call for a short-term low of 1,487 and subsequent high of 1,563 and then a new short-term low of 1,537 were accurate.

On March 22, our model confirmed the start of a new leg up and predicted a breakout above the recent high of 1,563. This happened today.

Our model predicts that the market will probably reach 1,610's as presented on March 23.

A close below 1,537 would invalidate our scenario.




DISCLAIMER: This blog shall not be perceived as investment advice. This is a personal diary of our thoughts on the markets. Consult a professional broker or adviser before investing.  Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog are shared as personal thoughts and provided as general commentary only.

Trend is still up

We have made another higher low today in $SPX, $DOW and $NDX.

The market will soon let us know whether it will break out to the upside or not of this triangle under formation, perhaps as soon as the end of this week.

A daily close below below $1,537 will invalidate our uptrend scenario to new highs.

The trend is up

We continue to advocate for our prediction that $SPX will soon make a new all time high according to last weekend's price model.

A daily close below 1,537 would invalidate this scenario

Market choppy, but trend is up

Both $SPX and $DOW have made higher highs and higher lows since the short-term bottom of March 19.

A daily close below 1,537 on the $SPX would invalidate the current uptrend scenario

$SPX Model

A daily close below 1,537 would invalidate the scenario below and suggest market rolling-over to the down-side

DISCLAIMER: This blog shall not be perceived as investment advice. This is a personal diary of our thoughts on the markets. Consult a professional broker or adviser before investing.  Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog are shared as personal thoughts and provided as general commentary only.

Trend continuous up

Today, we received confirmation for this leg up that started after our accurate prediction a week ago (March 15) of the recent short-term low 1,537 on $SPX that occurred on March 19 (1,538.57-actual).

Our model, as presented on Saturday March 16, calls for a short term target of 1,610-1,620 on $SPX.

A daily close below 1,537 would invalidate this scenario and suggest that the market rolled-over to the down-side