Multi year uptrend target range is projected at 1,600-1,620

The current bull market began on March 9, 2009 from a low of 667 on $SPX. The first wave up ended at 956 on June 8, 2009 (289 points). Based on this first leg up, our model projects 1,602 – 1,604 as the multi year uptrend high on $SPX.

The current uptrend that began on December 31, 2012 at 1,398.11 is projected to end 1,618 – 1,624.

The leg of the uptrend that began on February 26, 2013 at 1,485 is projected to end at 1,617.

The last leg of the uptrend that began on March 19, 2013 at 1,538.57 is projected to end at 1,616.

In conclusion, our analysis suggests the convergence of many different waves, starting as early as March 9, 2009 and as late as March 19, 2013, at the range of 1,600 – 1,620.

The length,in terms of time, of this bull run that started in March 2009 is now just over 4 years. The average length of bull markets over the last century is 3.8 years (median = 3.6 years). Therefore, we may be dealing with a "mature bull that may be getting tired of running".


A close below 1,537 invalidates the above mentioned target.

DISCLAIMER: This blog shall not be perceived as investment advice. This is a personal diary of our thoughts on the markets. Consult a professional broker or adviser before investing.  Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog are shared as personal thoughts and provided as general commentary only.

Trend is up

Today's breakout suggests that our previous call for a short-term low of 1,487 and subsequent high of 1,563 and then a new short-term low of 1,537 were accurate.

On March 22, our model confirmed the start of a new leg up and predicted a breakout above the recent high of 1,563. This happened today.

Our model predicts that the market will probably reach 1,610's as presented on March 23.

A close below 1,537 would invalidate our scenario.




DISCLAIMER: This blog shall not be perceived as investment advice. This is a personal diary of our thoughts on the markets. Consult a professional broker or adviser before investing.  Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog are shared as personal thoughts and provided as general commentary only.

Trend is still up

We have made another higher low today in $SPX, $DOW and $NDX.

The market will soon let us know whether it will break out to the upside or not of this triangle under formation, perhaps as soon as the end of this week.

A daily close below below $1,537 will invalidate our uptrend scenario to new highs.

The trend is up

We continue to advocate for our prediction that $SPX will soon make a new all time high according to last weekend's price model.

A daily close below 1,537 would invalidate this scenario

Market choppy, but trend is up

Both $SPX and $DOW have made higher highs and higher lows since the short-term bottom of March 19.

A daily close below 1,537 on the $SPX would invalidate the current uptrend scenario

$SPX Model

A daily close below 1,537 would invalidate the scenario below and suggest market rolling-over to the down-side

DISCLAIMER: This blog shall not be perceived as investment advice. This is a personal diary of our thoughts on the markets. Consult a professional broker or adviser before investing.  Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog are shared as personal thoughts and provided as general commentary only.

Trend continuous up

Today, we received confirmation for this leg up that started after our accurate prediction a week ago (March 15) of the recent short-term low 1,537 on $SPX that occurred on March 19 (1,538.57-actual).

Our model, as presented on Saturday March 16, calls for a short term target of 1,610-1,620 on $SPX.

A daily close below 1,537 would invalidate this scenario and suggest that the market rolled-over to the down-side 

Trend is still up until daily close below 1,537 on $SPX

Price action today was a correction of approximately 78% of the move from Tuesday's low to Wednesday's high.

Our model indicates that if the trend is still up, we should see a higher high soon.

If we close below 1,537, our model suggests that the market is rolling over to the down side.

Confirmation of new uptrend

Today's price action suggests the start of a new uptrend, with a potential target of 1,610-1,620, or a bit higher, on the $SPX. 

This new uptrend was confirmed on the DOW (made a higher high), but not $SPX. This scenario reminds us the May 1, 2012 scenario, following which the market rolled-over lower.

A close below the recent low (1,537) will invalidate the above scenario and suggest that the market is rolling over to the down side.

One more leg up - maybe

As we stated yesterday in our afternoon posting, we expected to have a gap up followed by a sell off that would reach 1,537.34. 

Today's price action confirmed our prediction and reached as low as 1,538.57 on $SPX. 

Our model predicts one more leg up to 1,620's on the $SPX (see weekend graph).

A close below 1,537 invalidates our prediction and suggests that the market has rolled-over to the down-side.

First leg down

We accurately predicted a short-term top last Thursday and the beginning of a correction last Friday.

Today, we experienced the first leg down of an ABC correction to 1,545 along with a retracement to 1,558.

We expect a second leg down to approximately 1,537, even if we have a gap up at the open tomorrow.

Our computer model projection

Short term down trend began

We have been noting since February 28, when we predicted the start of the present wave, that it would end in the range of 1,560's (1,563) on the $SPX.

Yesterday we clearly called the short term top.

Today, the market started a downward correction.

Our computer model calls for 1,537.43 as the short -term target of this downtrend.

Short term uptrend target reached on $SPX

We clocked 1,563.23 at EOD today, which falls in our target range for this uptrend, as we have previously defined. Also, RSI on the daily and hourly was above 70 at closing.

The market can certainly extend higher, or could reverse lower heading lower.

For us, this leg has almost completed (and we are waiting for a pull back).

No breakout

As said yesterday, a new leg down following yesterday's EOD retracement occurred early today after the opening, which did not register a lower low.

Neither the DOW nor SPX broke out upwards from their recent highs (SPY did however by $0.02), indicating an "inside day" (suggesting to us lack of commitment).

If what we saw was an ABC up (almost 92% retracement on the DOW) we should then have another leg down that will reach deeper.

We will have to wait until perhaps tomorrow to see whether the next move will be (gap) up or down.

Q & A

Our research suggests that we need to keep our eye on a midterm target (1,563), but focus on short term moves that validate our target. 

Current down-trend should find support at 1,542-1,535-1,512.

As said on March 7, 2013, a close below the recent 1,512 on the $SPX  or  14,030 on the DOW will invalidate our scenario.

First small leg down

As we said yesterday, a small pull back was due today.
That is what we experienced, plus a retracement.
Now we expect a second pullback that may or may not reach deeper than today.
Then, we expect to see new highs.

Waiting for a pull back

We expect 2 pullbacks, a small one right here and a larger one when this leg has completed (another 10 or so points on $SPX upward left). But, life is full of surprises, too.

Market overbought

Market chose scenario #2 from yesterday's write up: gap up + pull back (10 points) followed by a leg up.

Unlike $SPX, $DOW did not make a higher high at EOD; rather its high of 14,413 occurred within the first half hour of trading.

Market is overbought on the hourly and we believe requires a pullback before continuing higher.

We are still expecting a small pull back at this point to test the recent support level of 1,527 - 1,530 on $SPX.

Either a gap down at the opening, which will likely be filled and then eventually move higher, or a gap up which will be sold off.

A close below the recent 1,512 on the $SPX  or  14,030 on the DOW will invalidate our scenario.

Next target: Test support

We are still expecting a small pull-back here, testing the recent support level (1,527 - 1,530).

If $SPX breaks out, then we continue to the next target of 1,565.

A close below the recent 1,512 on the $SPX  or  14,030 on the DOW will invalidate our scenario.

Next target: Test support

As we predicted yesterday, there was a gap up at the opening today, with $SPX breaking out of the prior resistance of 1.530 observed on February 19 (now becomes support).

Furthermore, as we stated yesterday, on the hourly, $SPX reached the predicted 1,538 level (in fact reached the bit higher 1,543 level) and already began a small pullback towards the new support level of 1,527 - 1,530.

It is expected that subsequently $SPX will likely reach new highs at 1,565.

A close below the recent 1,512 on the $SPX  or  14,030 on the DOW will invalidate our scenario.

Next target: Test support

As we predicted last week on Monday (February 25, 2013), the bottom of the down trend was at 1,485 on the $SPX.

We also said that the new uptrend, the beginning of which was confirm last week Tuesday (February 26, 2013), would be composed of 3 legs:

(1) up 35-40 points: 1,525 : wave i
(2) a small pullback 1,501: wave ii
(3) a second 35 or so point advance : wave iii.

Within this wave iii, we see on the hourly the first leg up to 1,520, a leg down to 1,512 and now underway a second leg up to a target of 1,538, which will clear the recent resistance of Feb 19. It will then pull back to the new support (previously resistance) of 1,527 - 1,530, and possibly reach new highs targeted at 1,565.

A close below the recent 1,512 on the $SPX  or  14,030 on the DOW will invalidate our scenario.

Next target: 1,538.