The trend is down, but ...

Today, hourly $SPX charts also signaled that this recent short term uptrend had ended (with the exception of one indicator). On the daily charts, $SPX remains negative, along with the other major indices.

Having said that, the next few days are critical for the market, as the news from the FED and GDP will likely to influence what happens next.

For example, we may be dealing with the beginning of a new mid-term down trend with deep targets on the $SPX, or if the markets turn positive tomorrow, the beginning of a new uptrend worth 140 points on the $SPX.

In other words, we need to wait 1-2 days to see what happens.

Trend continues down

All indices closed in the red today.

Hourly charts ended mixed, where as daily charts were negative, as well as were the market internals.

It appears that we are in wave 3 of "c" down, although it is not yet confirmed.

Next target for this wave is 1,660 or so.

Trend is down

Despite $SPX's gain today (+2), all our daily indicators remained in negative configuration. On the hourly charts, we see the end of a short term down wave and the unfolding of a up wave.

Market internals were also negative; for example: 3,328 losers for 2,581 gainers.

Wave 1 of "c" appears to have completed today at a low of 1,676 (not yesterday or Wednesday).
Wave-2 of "c" is underway and should end between 1,690 and 1,693 or so.

After that, if our model is correct, we should see the markets drop impulsively, targeting 1,660 or so.

Interestingly, $SPX made a lower low and then ended higher than yesterday's high; in contrast, ES/ futures also made a lower low, but did not break out above yesterday's high. NASDAQ broke out like $SPX (even more so), whereas DJIA was even with yesterday's high, and the broader Russel 3000 did not breakout above yesterday and the small caps' Russel 2000 index remained well below yesterday's high.

Next: Market will go a bit higher, if that, before it turns impulsively lower.

Trend is down

All of our indicators point downwards.

That means that if we have a gap up tomorrow, we expect that it will be sold off, resulting in a drop of the indices.

It looks that wave-1 of "c" ended today (versus yesterday) at 1,680 on the $SPX.

Next target 1,640

Short term: A down-trend started today: On the 15min chart, we see wave "a" yesterday (1,698 - 1,691), "b" (1,691 - 1,698) today and then "c" began downwards right after the opening.

The last wave "c" will have 5 waves:
- Wave 1 completed today (1,698 - 1,682)
- Wave 2 is underway (or has completed)
- Wave 3 will unfold tomorrow
- Wave 4 a shallow retraction, and
- Wave 5 targeting 1,640 (which is also the 50 EMA on $SPX daily charts).

head fake ?

Although we had all time high closings for $DJIA , $RUT and $SPX, coupled with a valid breakout above recent levels of resistance, none of our indicators turned short term bullish.

Therefore, we are treating today's move with caution.

For this to be a new uptrend (for 60 or more points on the $SPX), today's low must hold and our indicators must turn bullish.

Market looking for a catalyst to determine its next move

The end of the recent uptrend (2 waves: June 24 - July 1, and July 3 - July 15) was confirmed today.

The market tried to break out today, but failed.

It did not break down, either.

The market is looking for the next reason to move up or down.

Start of a short term down trend

Today we had confirmation on all major market indices of the beginning of a new wave down.

Our previous projection for a interim top in the 1,660's was a bit short of the 1,684 on the $SPX that actual experienced.

It is still unclear, despite the call for a wave down, whether this is a wave 4 or wave "c" of a retracement just ended and now we will have an impulsive wave 3 down.

The test will be a close above the recent top of 1,684.

The market may resemble what we say in July 2011.

Potential short term top

Next week will show whether today's close will serve as a top of some sort.

What we have experienced is two waves of 60+ points each that could either be an a-b-c retracement of a larger wave down, or an 1-2-3 of a new larger wave up.

Today is unclear what the mid term direction of the market will be. The direction will likely be dictated by earnings and Fed policy speculation.

Need to wait for next week - today is a day to pause.

The weekly charts turned bullish, but our favorite indicator spy:vxx is signaling a down move in the near future.

Target met

Today $SPX met and exceed some our target range of 1,660 on FED comments.

Tomorrow a couple of big banks report quarterly earnings - it will be an important day.

At this point, we have to wait and see what happens tomorrow!

Short term trend is up

The uptrend continued today as expected, en route to reach 1,660's on the $SPX.

Mid-term predictions as detailed in yesterday's blog.

1,660's target

We have decided that we will report out thoughts on market action distinctly for short term (we study the daily charts and look for confirmation on the hourly charts) and medium term time frames (we look at weekly and monthly charts - see June 28 report on the status of these). Hence, starting today, we will express these thoughts separately.

Medium Term: Until proven otherwise, we advocate that the market experienced a significant top on May 22 at 1,687 on the $SPX. We believe that the market is unfolding downwards since then, exerting several upwards retracements and concurrently displaying increased volatility (compared to the period from April 19 - to - May 22). Therefore, waves up for us are corrective retracements, until proven otherwise.

Short Term: We are in an uptrend since 1,560 of June 24, 2013. We interpret market action as a wave "a" up (1,560-1,626), wave "b" (1,626-1,604) down, and now wave "c" (started on July 3). Wave "a" was 60 or so points on the $SPX and consequently we anticipate a 60 point move upwards from 1,604, which we anticipate to bring the market  to our target of 1,660's. However, this wave can fail at any time now.

Depending on each person's personality, some follow short term and others follow medium trend signals.

DISCLAIMER This blog shall not be perceived as investment advice. This is a personal diary of our thoughts on the markets. Consult a professional broker or adviser before investing.  Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog are shared as personal thoughts and provided as general commentary only

Short term uptrend

Today all our indicators turned positive.

$SPX closed above its 50 DMA. $RUT is the most bullish average.

We are in a wave up, targeting 1,660 or so.

Waiting for a catalyst

The trend is down, despite the fact that we have experienced a upwards retracement and are having difficulty dropping impulsively lower. During the last 3 days, we have observed lower highs and lower lows.

Also, our moving averages indicator EMA(13), EMA(21) and EMA(34) are in a negative configuration, with the price below EMA(21) and EMA(34).

What we need to experience is a catalyst to produce an impulsive wave down, which will generate confirmation on the daily charts. The hourly charts remain in negative configuration.

Reversal day?

We continue to have confirmation on the hourly charts ($SPX & $DJIA) of the beginning of a new wave down.

Today, we also received confirmation of a down trend on our favorite SPY:VXX ratio.
Also, bonds stopped falling and new money is coming into them - perhaps a bearish sign. Interestingly, DJIA is more bearish that $SPX and $RUT.

However, we do NOT have confirmation of a down trend on the daily charts.

All and all, our uptrend that started on June 24 likely ended yesterday and we are awaiting for confirmation of a new down wave.

Target for this new down trend when it materializes is 1,530 or a bit lower.

Waiting for the uptrend to end

There is not much new to add to our analysis for last Friday.

We advocate that we are approaching the end of this upwards retracement and we anticipate that we will soon resume downwards action.

On the hourly, $SPX moved from last Friday's negative closing to positive momentum and then closed negative again. $SPX on the daily has not given us confirmation of a downwards wave yet. $DJIA is again less bullish that $SPX (like last Friday).

Until we get a significant drop that will generate confirmation of a new short term down trend, we can only point out that our indicators suggest that the current uptrend is coming to an end.