Weekly performance review
We continue to advocate the scenario that 1,597 on April 11 2013 is an important top, as several waves of different time frames converge in that range (see March 30, 2013 post for analysis).
To this end, we experienced a first leg down to 1,536 on April 18, 2013, the size of which is consistent with this type of waves over the last decade.
Subsequently, we experienced an upward retracement which reached almost 90% of the April 11 - April 18 down wave, extending our projected range (62-75%). In fact, last spring we saw a 90% upward retracement (by May 1, 2012) of a down market that started on April 1, 2012. Also, similar scenario occurred in Oct 2012. Therefore, the degree of this recent retracement should not be a surprise.
As stated on last Thursday's post, we have confirmation on the $SPX hourly of the beginning of a new wave down since April 25, 2013 and indications on yesterday's daily chart. Perhaps we will have confirmation of this new leg down next Monday.
Based on the data from last Thursday and Friday, our quantitative model projects the next target at 1,560, and after a short bounce, a lower low. More on the down trend targets next week, as new data from $SPX will allow us to calculate our targets more accurately.
To this end, we experienced a first leg down to 1,536 on April 18, 2013, the size of which is consistent with this type of waves over the last decade.
Subsequently, we experienced an upward retracement which reached almost 90% of the April 11 - April 18 down wave, extending our projected range (62-75%). In fact, last spring we saw a 90% upward retracement (by May 1, 2012) of a down market that started on April 1, 2012. Also, similar scenario occurred in Oct 2012. Therefore, the degree of this recent retracement should not be a surprise.
As stated on last Thursday's post, we have confirmation on the $SPX hourly of the beginning of a new wave down since April 25, 2013 and indications on yesterday's daily chart. Perhaps we will have confirmation of this new leg down next Monday.
Based on the data from last Thursday and Friday, our quantitative model projects the next target at 1,560, and after a short bounce, a lower low. More on the down trend targets next week, as new data from $SPX will allow us to calculate our targets more accurately.
This blog shall not be perceived as investment advice. This is a personal diary of our thoughts on the markets. Consult a professional broker or adviser before investing. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog are shared as personal thoughts and provided as general commentary only.
ia it 'trade for dummies' by dummies.ur call for correction now seems lame.
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