Thursday, June 13, 2013

Trend down or reversal day

As we claimed yesterday, the market dipped right after the open towards 1,600 (reached 1,608 or so) and then as predicted rallied upwards.

There are 2 possibilities.
1) The market reversed and will continue to rally higher, finding short term support on the 50 day moving average
2) the market trend continues down, and today was a relief rally in a down trend.

Analysis of the daily chart at today's close depicts at this point that we are in a down trend. Analysis of the hourly charts also at this point has not yet confirmed a larger trend reversal. If our analyses are correct, the sharp uptrend reversal today could be explained as a small degree wave-2 (corrective) of a larger 5 wave down structure, aiming much lower.

If our prediction is correct, we should soon see a sharp reversal lower, showing impulsive (wave-3 type of) characteristics

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