our downwards count in jeopardy

Today's close at 1,671 puts our projections at jeopardy.

Tomorrow will be the telling day, as to whether this is a head fake or we will resume downwards.

The reason we are skeptical about this leg up, despite its impressive strength over the last few days, is that the market is still positioned in a downwards view and is short-term overbought as can be seen from RSI(5) on the daily (not overbought on the hourly however, thinking maybe a higher high first tomorrow before any change).

On the hourly, since the low of 1,627 on Aug 27, we have had an a-b-c up to 1,646, b wave down to 1,628, followed by a five wave c up to 1,672 today. If this count is accurate, it looks like a corrective (upwards) a-b-c of a larger declining wave.

On the daily, so far it looks like a larger A wave down to 1,627, a 50% correction or so to 1,672 so far, and it this is correct, then an anticipated wave down. If the market breaks below the recent 1,627 level, then it will likely test 1,590 or so.

Alternatively, we have an new wave 1 upwards unfolding that may reach 1,690 or so, and which means we should see a precipitous drop of about 50% after it tops off.

Tomorrow will be a telling day.